Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.003800 0.004160 0.004547 0.004992 0.005492 0.006038 0.006682
2025-12-07 0.003279 0.003801 0.004400 0.005145 0.006051 0.007129 0.008518
2025-12-14 0.002879 0.003462 0.004163 0.005078 0.006256 0.007739 0.009782
2025-12-21 0.002572 0.003180 0.003938 0.004968 0.006352 0.008182 0.010841
2025-12-28 0.002352 0.002978 0.003783 0.004912 0.006490 0.008666 0.011989
2026-01-04 0.002205 0.002852 0.003707 0.004944 0.006735 0.009307 0.013424
2026-01-11 0.002049 0.002697 0.003574 0.004878 0.006825 0.009721 0.014557
2026-01-18 0.001920 0.002570 0.003467 0.004834 0.006933 0.010163 0.015780
2026-01-25 0.001803 0.002448 0.003357 0.004771 0.007003 0.010543 0.016938
2026-02-01 0.001719 0.002368 0.003298 0.004780 0.007179 0.011107 0.018483
2026-02-08 0.001625 0.002266 0.003201 0.004718 0.007233 0.011465 0.019700
2026-02-15 0.001535 0.002165 0.003097 0.004636 0.007242 0.011743 0.020798
2026-02-22 0.001480 0.002117 0.003075 0.004692 0.007506 0.012527 0.023065
2026-03-01 0.001448 0.002100 0.003103 0.004834 0.007936 0.013674 0.026307
2026-03-08 0.001374 0.002015 0.003015 0.004773 0.007992 0.014117 0.028118
2026-03-15 0.001298 0.001923 0.002909 0.004671 0.007962 0.014386 0.029581
2026-03-22 0.001239 0.001853 0.002835 0.004619 0.008021 0.014836 0.031554
2026-03-29 0.001200 0.001813 0.002809 0.004648 0.008238 0.015641 0.034556
2026-04-05 0.001147 0.001748 0.002736 0.004588 0.008269 0.016050 0.036631
2026-04-12 0.001101 0.001693 0.002676 0.004546 0.008335 0.016543 0.039034
2026-04-19 0.001056 0.001636 0.002610 0.004488 0.008360 0.016945 0.041275
2026-04-26 0.001024 0.001601 0.002580 0.004497 0.008525 0.017694 0.044693
2026-05-03 0.000984 0.001550 0.002519 0.004439 0.008543 0.018091 0.047150